November 3, 2025

From a Strategic Paradox to a Holistic Imperative

The enduring debate in higher education over whether to prioritize enrollment or completion is a false dilemma. An approach that emphasizes enrollment alone can cause a "leaky pipeline," wasting resources on students who don’t graduate and threatening sustainability. Instead, emphasizing student completion through comprehensive, evidence-based strategies is the most effective long-term approach for maintaining robust enrollment. Leaders should move from reactive recruitment to proactive, student-focused models that support students throughout their entire academic journey, understanding that enrollment and completion are interconnected goals that strengthen each other.

Part I: The Enrollment Imperative - Securing the Front Door

The success of any higher education institution is inextricably linked to its ability to attract and maintain a healthy student population. Enrollment serves as the primary financial engine, fueling innovation, shaping academic excellence, and ensuring the continuity of knowledge. For tuition-driven institutions, a steady stream of new students is not just a strategic goal; it is a matter of institutional survival.

The Volatile Landscape: A Recovery, Not a Boom

Recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center offers a promising headline: total postsecondary enrollment increased by 3.2% in spring 2025, adding 562,000 students compared to the previous year. Undergraduate enrollment grew by 3.5%, while enrollment at community colleges saw a substantial increase of 5.4%. This positive trend marks the first sustained increase in enrollment in years. However, this short-term gain must be viewed against the backdrop of a long-term, structural decline. Total undergraduate enrollment decreased by a staggering 15% between fall 2010 and fall 2021, with 42% of this decline occurring during the pandemic. The recent growth, while encouraging, is not a return to a healthy, expanding market. Instead, it is a fragile recovery from a decade-long crisis that has brought enrollment to its closest point to pre-2020 numbers but still lags by 0.9%. Relying on this trend for long-term planning is perilous, as the impending "demographic cliff"—a decline in the population of traditional-aged college students—is not a future problem but a present one.

This suggests a fundamental shift in the market that necessitates a strategic pivot to new student populations. For instance, the number of undergraduate students in their twenties increased significantly in spring 2025, with students aged 25-29 seeing a 5.9% year-over-year growth, marking the beginning of a recovery for a demographic that has seen consistent declines since the pandemic. Similarly, enrollment in undergraduate certificate programs has continued to grow, now standing 20% above its 2020 levels. These shifts underscore the necessity for institutions to adjust their recruitment strategies and academic offerings to cater to the evolving needs of their student body.

Part II: The Completion Crisis - The Untapped Opportunity

A high completion rate's strategic importance goes well beyond the institution's mission; it serves as a key indicator of a college or university's quality and effectiveness. Additionally, it provides the most straightforward measure of an institution's capacity to deliver on its significant promises to students and their families.

The Metrics of Success: Beyond Enrollment

To understand the full scope of the completion challenge, it is essential to look at the standardized metrics used to measure student success.

● Retention Rate: This metric measures the percentage of first-time undergraduate students who return to the same institution for their second year of study. For first-time, full-time degree-seeking undergraduates who entered in the fall of 2019, the overall retention rate for 4-year public institutions was 82% in the fall of 2020. The rate was significantly lower for 2-year public institutions, at 61%. (COE - Undergraduate Retention and Graduation Rates, n.d.)

● Graduation Rate: Under the Student Right-to-Know Act, institutions report the percentage of first-time, full-time students who complete their program within 150% of the normal time for completion (e.g., six years for a four-year bachelor's degree). The overall 6-year graduation rate for the cohort that began in fall 2014 was 64% by 2020.

● Student Completion Ratio: This individual student-level metric, often used for financial aid purposes, is calculated by dividing the number of completed credit hours by the total number of attempted credit hours.

Understanding graduation rates requires nuance. They often count transfer students as non-completers, even if they succeed elsewhere, masking a college's effectiveness. A bigger issue is that 43% of students at public 2-year colleges neither complete nor transfer, indicating a large group has entirely stopped higher education.

The Stakes of Attrition: Why Completion Matters Most

A deep focus on completion is a strategic imperative for all stakeholders.

● For the Institution: High graduation rates are a transparent metric of quality and accountability that prospective students, parents, and policymakers use to evaluate a school. They enhance an institution's reputation and become a powerful recruitment tool, creating a "chicken-and-egg" dynamic where completion fuels future enrollment. A focus on retaining students once they are on campus is also a fiscally sound strategy, as it protects tuition revenue, especially in a tuition-driven market, and cultivates a base of future alumni donors who are more likely to give back financially.

● For the Student: A college degree is a high-return investment. The evidence shows that typical college graduates earn about 73% more over their working lives than high school graduates. They are also less likely to be unemployed and are more likely to achieve greater economic success and social mobility. Conversely, students who leave without a degree often bear the significant burden of student loan debt without the benefits of higher-paying jobs or increased economic security. (Bryant, 2023)

● For Society: The benefits of an educated populace are far-reaching. Higher levels of education correlate with higher tax payments, lower unemployment rates, and reduced demand on social safety net programs. A more educated citizenry is also more likely to engage in civic participation, such as voting and volunteer work, making student success a public good that benefits everyone.

Achieving high retention and graduation rates should be a core part of an institution's mission, not a trade-off for business interests. Some oppose a 'customer service' approach fearing it weakens academics, but many mission-driven schools adopt 'value entrepreneurialism,' recognizing that a school needs resources to fulfill its mission—'no money, no mission.' Addressing students' holistic needs isn't a business compromise but vital to fostering connections and success.

Graduation and Retention Rates by Institutional Type

Note: From COE - Undergraduate Retention and Graduation Rates, (2022).

Part III: Strategic Recommendations - A Blueprint for Holistic Success

To ensure a sustainable future, higher education should transition from prioritizing recruitment to focusing on student completion, with an emphasis on relational support. This shift involves implementing evidence-based, data-driven strategies that cater to students' financial and emotional needs.

Financial Wellness Initiatives: Beyond the Scholarship

● Institutions should provide financial aid that covers all students’ needs, not just tuition.

● Emergency aid programs, offering "just-in-time" grants, effectively prevent dropouts with 95% of recipients completing their term and 88% continuing.

● Collaboration between community organizations and technology can connect students with public programs that address basic needs.

Academic and Structural Support: The Power of Proactive Pathways

● Shift advising from reactive to proactive, anticipating barriers to prevent crises.

● Use data to support at-risk students with targeted interventions.

● The ASAP program demonstrates success by removing financial barriers and creating structured, connected communities.

Fostering a Culture of Belonging: The Bedrock of Retention

● Institutions must create a culture of belonging through evidence-based interventions.

● Cohort models and empathetic communication, such as revised academic probation letters, can increase retention by up to 10%.

● Measure belonging to identify patterns and utilize technology to foster student connections.

Comprehensive Mental Health Services: A Critical Institutional Investment

● Essential mental health services include counseling, virtual therapy, crisis support, and proactive wellness initiatives.

● Peer support programs enhance professional services by providing safe spaces led by trained student leaders.

Targeted Support for Vulnerable Populations

● For first-generation students, institutions should offer mentorship, financial aid, and a safe space for open discussion.

● Older learners benefit from flexible scheduling and specially designed programs.

The Student Success Ecosystem: Proven Strategies and Outcomes

Conclusion: The Future of Higher Education is Holistic

The future of higher education lies in a holistic approach where enrollment and completion are interconnected goals. Relying solely on aggressive recruitment risks perpetuating high dropout rates and ethical concerns, whereas a long-term, mission-driven strategy focused on student success fosters a culture of excellence that enhances retention, graduation rates, and the institution's reputation. Success requires moving beyond one-size-fits-all solutions, analyzing students' unique challenges, and responding proactively. By prioritizing human-centered support, institutions can address the core issues threatening their sustainability and foster a cycle of lifelong alumni connections and growth.